Position Paper Presented by Mr. Gerald Thorn during the Asian Regional Security Forum, sponsored by Ministry of Peace Philippines and Tibet Philippines Support Network
If representatives of co host entities of our ‘event(s) over the next few days ~ Ministry of Peace here in Philippines; Magna Carta Centre, Nepal and Tibet House Director, Venerable Yeshe were asked what our Manila event is about I hope they might include some, or all the above.
Our events include addresses, panel discussions ~ both allowing forums for all to participate, as and when they wish to do so in constructive ways. It is our sincere wish that non-participants
within a day or two will come to share our vision of, if we build on the original, ‘Manila 2000’ (let’s call it,“Manila for 2014 and Beyond,” to show or deep gratitude to the people of Manila,
many who contributed significantly in preparation, as well as equally important our Asian location) where South Asia, , including India is important (home of our key speaker, Maj. Gen. Vinod Saighal, ret.) as are SE. Asia and East Asia including China, P.R.C.
As an interfaith project co-ordinated by Yeshe a leading Buddhist monk locally and Darwin Delatado a brother of the Church, among others, thinking has been strongly shaped by values
espoused in the title; first aired at Manila 2000 – the first major IDP conference and one major precursor of to UNESCO support and thereby UN adoption of a permanent Forum of Indigenous
Peoples’ with consultative status in decision making, strongly encouraged by UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon and probably tacitly by the US, or it may not have succeeded.
What most of you are perhaps not aware of is China, as a high profile member with significant
political and economic clout in the former UNESCO linked Human Rights Council voted for to ensure inclusion of Iindigenous Peoples’ rights a decade earlier. The US, Canada,
New Zealand and Australia; said to be fearful of any resolution being interpreted as elevating
Indigenous rights above those of their ‘nation state’ voted against the resolution China chose
to support in 1996.creating now damaging credibility issues for China.
At the eventual UN vote for a resolution adopting a IDF permanent forum the US , Canada,
New Zealand and Australia had moved to improve what they presumably recognized as
their domestic shortcomings in treatment of indigenous peoples’ . China remains in the firing
line both from significant other powers and it’s own indigenous peoples but has not yet made
any moves to change course from a first stage Genghis Kahn model – ultimately violent suppression which is no longer acceptable amongst nation state peers who may have histories
of similar mastery of shock and awe violence but knowing how short all but Jewish memories
seem to be, now promote themselves as holding the moral high ground!
Even Genghis Kahn knew his soldiers on ponys capable of smashing into China and most of
Eastern Europe with the era’s equivalent of a fast moving panzer column knew his
pony soldiers were unskilled in administration so in stage two after conquest of increasingly vast territories with cities he simply changed tack to induct locals in vassal states and cities
as ongoing administrators loyal to him, as Hitler’s Germany largely failed to emulate when marching East into Poland and the Soviet Union ~ with many indigenous ethnic minorities
strongly yearning to be freed from Stalin’s yoke..
The ugly race based underpinning of Nazi thought allowed benign oversight and conquered nation state self-governence in ‘Nordic’ nation states, including Netherlands, Denmark and Norway, as occurred Vichy France (Romance Group and Non-Nordic as Mussolini’s Italy a key German ally), with all in some measure contributing SS divisions with even a small British
contingent for the 1941 ‘God is with us’ (Gott mit uns belted march into ‘Slavic’ subhuman
(untermenchen) states to the East.
German blinkers at all levels of leadership prevented unleashing Ukraine, who armed would have been a far more committed ‘ally’ than Japan who had no big incentive to invade Soviet Siberia, leaving a milion Siberians to move on Hitler’s vanguards still in light summer uniforms outside Moscow’. Ukraine fighting with Germany for self-determination and the independence it now has would have possibly won the war for Hitler.
A free armed Ukraine would have provided a bulwark against a rump Stalinist Russia, leading to a perhaps successful uprising in regions such as now independent but ‘curbed’ Georgia, perhaps other parts of then Soviet Union, as well as collapse of Russian front bringing up the possibility of Stalin’s negotiating a surrender where he withdrew behind the Urals as secret released documents betray he was at least considering ~ bringing forward regaining independence for Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania by decades and Soviet hegemony over much of Europe effectively approved at the 1943 Yalta Conference, never going ahead.
The race for the bomb America won may then have had European targets in addition to Japan.
One millon Soviet Siberians well equipped with Soviet designed T 34’s better than Hitlers, with broad based tracks, low sloping armour profiles, better traction in mud, well equipped snow condition uniforms running on sump oils designed not to freeze except in conditions below -50 degrees celsius which in 1941 were the coldest in 50 years, quickly sent Hitler’s tanks over 200kms in retreat ~ setting the stage for the biggest miltary defeat of a then major power in history ending with Hiter Jugend school boys fighting a huge Soviet tank army in the battle of Berlin by early 1945 with an outcome never in doubt. Soviet tactics were lacking but with eventual 10 : 1 numerical superiority in land battles they prevailed with enormous losses.
One party states have critical governence short comings where policians, even those gifted in tactics begin believing in their own infallibility and ‘wonder weapons’ to save them is not an
wars to the finish where resources are limited as were Germany’s, even after mastery of Europe
and Eastern Soviet territories was a fact. China as a one party state may still be homogenous
enough with mass Han Chinese migrations to counter balance ethnic minority enclaves which
will ensure China survives with or without the C.PC.
With the growing collaboration of indigenous peoples globally all holding hegemonistic powers
currently, or aspiring to extend theirs regionally, or even globally against a largely intact US
dominance, as well as the US itself; would be well advised to see Indigenous Peoples in an emerging power paradigm terms ~ a newly coherent and growingly sophisticated force that
political expediency weighing up costs and benefits might be wise to to accommodate.
We all prefer to be hammers rather than nails so forward thinking nation states
are best advised to move with the flow as Metternich’s Europe and Genghis Kahn’s Asia – to Eastern Europe empire eventually found.
While for his time Genghis Kahn was not shy about using the weapons of subjugation, or ‘shock and awe’ befitting his era, no less than a US President adviser Huntington sees
Western hegemony as based not only on monopoly of killing power but also a willingness to use it. Perceptive observers may have noticed China’s dropping ‘no first use’ policy for nuke usage,
perhaps recognizing that Israel is a better modern Sparta than USA and capable of selling modern minaturised nukes for a price or to supplement increasingly sophisticated cyber espionage from a democratic USA where security continues to have huge gaps where ‘secrets constantly go ‘missing ‘ unaccountably as Israel following a ‘pre-emptive strike’ model and
cyber espionage use against all who has secrets we want has known for decades.
The United Nations is not a forum for seeking justice and neither can it ever be as currently structured as both Vinod Saighal and NAM have asserted with a view to changes they want
to see before the UN lives up to founding principles. The US and China use their power
economicaly and politically (usually ‘hard power in Joseph Nye terms – rather than ‘soft’)
to get their way in ‘strong arming ways’ as Mike Moore of New Zealand and Thailand’s
Supachai found out when at the beginning of the millennium their Director Generalships
WTO were effectively split to accommodate, among other things, a friendly U.S. relationship
with both countries ~ with both in trade terms becoming closer to China; New Zealand to
the point of an FTA long denied them by US and Japan.
Naked in the extreme, or often closely disguised is how ‘21st century ‘big powers’ express
“self interest”. The US, as with France didn’t like protests against nukes and bowed
to farming lobbies vocal in calls for protection against so called “unfair competition”.
China’s bullying of Phillipines (and some would say Taiwan’s) reflect political goals.
The veiled threats implicit in measured US responses same as in Bosnia previously, carried
a clear warning; “we are the biggest dog on this globe. Don’t make us an enemy lightly!”
So the stage set for our events and forum is set. The U.S. is still the best equipped power with
years of experience backed up by training in the arsenals of mass destruction to probably prevail
in anything short of a ‘face off’ on several fronts at once.
The same was largely true in Germany of 1ate 1941 through the first half of 1942 but without
the same near self sufficiency of energy supplies the US would have if it moved to control in anything other than a very brief conflict ~Panama and Venezuela with largest oil reserves in world being likely early targets for asseting control and ‘installing’ US friendy government in latter if it really got to crunch point with invasion plans for key assets of Middle East.
Invasions are often difficult. US estimates in 1943-44 is sudduing Japanese forces in Taiwan
have required a fully equipped invasion force of 350,000 landing in Kaohsiung at the sothern extremity of the island moving north.
Given the distance to Taipei at least 3 months of intense fighting with possibly heavy casualties in a terrain where one side of island is “not tank friendly” or otherwise suited to mechanized warfare and a welcome of locals not a certainty, with some already serving in Japanese Army
roles, notably here in the Philippines ensuring some who would have been hostile to the US.
Indigenous peoples globally total over 370m well over USA population of a little over 303m.
Until UNESCO recognition and fostering of a permanent Indigenous Peoples’ Forum with
Mechanisms for engagement in decision making they had no‘voice’ which is largely why
India worked with Indonesia and smaller developing nations to create N.A,M ~ Non-Aligned
Movement with a membership including well over 60% of UN members; chaired by
Iran for the next two years when the baton is due to pass to Venezuela.
Indigenous peoples collectively identifiable from the nomads of Tibet, through to natives of Hawaii, South Tyrol Germans in Italy, or Scots in Scotland share an identity status with Uygurs
in west of China or Arctic native inhabitants in the Russian Federation, Canada, or Alaska~ they
are an identifiable population of over three hundred seventy million within every continent on Earth and the great majority of nation states within those nation states ~ with some nation states globally recognized, enjoying UN membership and some denied all or limited formal recognition.
Tibet, Taiwan, Basques in Barcelonia and and now an increasingly vocal indigenous people of Hawaii are clearly in the latter category of limited recognition and therefore limited power in
virtually all global forums. In contrast, with UN based in New York, partly reflecting US key,
role in founding UN with fellow soon to be UNSC nuclear club nation states ~victors of WW2.
One of the few exceptions ~ Taiwan’s ‘ largely unrecognized President’ being granted front row status at inauguration /investiture of Pope Francis I , reflecting close relationship of Taiwan with
Holy See at logger heads with China over who chooses church officials and underpinned by UN transferring UN representation to the Peoples’ Republic of China in 1971 ~ just ahead of U.S.
The U.S in what some might view as a provocative ‘tit for tat’ move, recently extended greater
‘as close as you can get virtual diplomatic status’ to Taiwan’s overseas representatives where US
juridiction prevails. What was the ‘tat’? There are many possibilities ~ fears over treaty obligations to both Japan , Phillipines and Taiwan (ROC) among them. Maintaining hegemony
is the art of politics ~ sometimes exercised with finess, other times clumsily; as in the shooting
down of a South Korean airliner mistaken as an uknown attacker by the then Soviets, or the US downing an Iranian airliner, or dropping pork ration packs on starving Moslem refugees in Bosnia by and killing Xinhua media representatives sleeping in an Embassy in the same theatre.
Winning hearts and minds in Vietnam was an abysmal failure ending with images of desperate
colaborators with their supposed ‘liberators’ and simple scared refugees clinging to helicopter
landing gear evacuating the US embassy in now renamed Ho Chi Minh city, formerly Saigon in
honour of a leader seen as a nationalist first and, if at all, a Communist second in a proud nation with a long history of fighting foreign dominance including 1000 years under China’s yolk.
My brief introduction serves as a context for realities of power shaping an Asian regional power
Play where on one hand the US, committed to ‘freedom of the high seas “ in which it prefers to
roam at will has not yet ratified UN Convention of Law of Sea which is helpful, very likely unhelpful for an ally, the Philippines, seeking arbitration in maritime territorial disputes with
vastly more powerful China. China similarly, dismisses any form of mediation in that which
it insists must be leader to leader or nation state to nation state negotition, in a snub to other
significant entities including ASEAN and the United Nations.
Where do Indigenous Peoples’ interests fit into this equation? With China’s support OF IPF in 1996, whether fully thought through or not, and tacit acceptance with US chairing Arctic Council
where rights and consultations of indigenous peoples are built into framework now being chaired,
starting this year by USA, implying acceptance of IPF principles, it is likely those principles are on the ascendant towards growing real cohesion of interests and power to influence events.
For a nation which has often inspired the world with soft power democracy in words but less
convincingly through deeds, it might be wise to change paradigms away from seeking to halt
the evolution of history when it’s doubtful you have resources to sustain bleeding of $200-300m
every day. The Roman Empire eventually collapsed within on faulty economics.
Integrating other powerful economies, including China, with the US economy through asset purchases and debt purchases may stall the slide, even for decades but where US is biggest debtor nation by far and China the biggest creditor already reflected in trade surpluses and
foreign exchange holdings in Hong Kong and Taiwan reflecting total or growing integration
with China’s economy, short of war in next two decades to shore up US allies as well as U.S
will power wihich home populations are against, a wise US would ‘hedge it’s bets!
The political realities have changed significantly since Manila 2000 and both in qualitative and
quantitative terms are likely to see this reflected in forums where political democracy carries far
greater weight than earier, including last century. In consultative negotiations trade offs will be
necessary where hegemony maintenance globally, or regionally, as in Asia concessions will be
needed to try maintain hegemonies which will fail, unless power sharing becomes real with
US taking a lead in something significant such as UN reforms starting with the UNSC.
So my credentials to start the ball rolling with this introduction? I have more than a decade under my belt as a “poliical advisor” to democratic governments backed by university teaching and at
various times living in seven distinct cultures (currently, mosty with my Indonesian wife and two dependants from a recognized Sundanese indigenous minority).
Our keynote speaker this morning is former Training Manager of the Indian Army, Major General Vinod Saighal (retired) who is elsewhere introduced but is perhaps best known for
his first book “Third Millennium Equipoise”. He has served as a UN peacekeeper, treks the
Himalayas at least once a year to keep in shape, runs an earth friendly NGO and has spoken
to top level audiences such as we believe you are, in Manila recently as well.
If Vinod had anything to do with an Indian navy flotilla including their latest state of the art
stealth frigate arriving in Manila Bay this week, he is playing his cards very close to his chest!
Another speaker is Guy Thomas, probably well described as an innovative electronics engineer
with an earlier US Coast Guard background in hostile environments who now as C ‘Sigma’
consulting CEO, speaking Spanish, Japanese and Russian, is committed to greatly improved global sharing of “maritime zone awareness” data obtained from AIS receivers in space ~ with his estimate of another 14 will be in place to add to 11 already in existence currently, by 2014.
Put in religious terms the slogan of US navy planes mapping China’s coastal installations emblazoned on sides of turbo prop suveillance planes off Hainan a few years ago, replacing
pin up girls in favour of “in God we trust – all others get monitored” ( now to avoid Chinese or
US ships crashing into UN Heritage sites rather than forced to land on Hainan after a very angry Chinese aviator crashing into a navy spy plane forced it to choose crash landing on land rather than taking a possible kami kazi choice into the sea.
As New Zealand implied over 25 years ago when confronted with “we neither confirm nor deny”
when nuke free zones and power were about to be legislated , after an equally unacceptable bombing of a Greenpeace vessel in Auckland harbour by a friendly European power, which
first denied responsibility, (after expressing sympathy for their friend New Zealand’s being
attacked by unknown terrorists) then retracted:- and admitted culpability, we urge our friends to make a difference between door mats and true friends when symbolically, ‘wiping their boots”.
Following presentations we will move on to a “panel discussion” moderated by a gifted and
often witty and provocatice former editot of Japan times, journalism Professor –Yoichi Shimatsu.
followed by a greater question and answer opportunity of panelists and speakers where you are all welcomed to give brief comments then we will adjourn for a light lunch
An America in ‘splendid isolation’ between two wars ~ even refusing to join ‘Europe’s wars’
until a lend lease program had been devised and Pearl Harbor had been attacked (by surprise?)
remained outside the League of Nations forerunner of the UN ~ it collapsed.
A spiritual and political renaissance which breathes life back into American culture is long
overdue. Failure to recognise this as American writer John Steinbeck almot did in “Grapes of Wrath”in the 1930’s Great Depression may ensure the next great hegemony will certainly
not be an American one though culturally there remains much to be admired.
Every dog has his day even the one that growled knowingly back in Bosnia 25 years ago ‘I’m the biggest on this patch”; yes, maybe so but are your development policies “sustainable”?
Arguably no, they are not, without considerable change of paradigmatic thinking where China
and newly assertive ‘BRIC’ nations and Indigenous Peoples are increasingly learning to sing
well as singers in harmony but their song for a growing mass of opinion leaders is not the same.
Leadership is a leaning process. A simple fact of relationships in psychological terms, whether between groups, ethnic minorities, countries or even individuals is that even small differences
can be more readily voiced and exaggerated than often more obvious similarities which stand
in way of co-operation as assuredly as joining with neighbours a few centuries ago to bring
down a mammoth ~ until hunger replaced fear and priority prevailed~ working in concert won.
Hegemonies thrive on exploiting weaknesses ~ one of reasons Hitler survived until 1945. When
opponents were caught, slaughtered with an enemy at every gate to the German homeland it
was too late. Political one paty state hegemonies or regional political ones extending to global
hegemonies in the 21st century are no different. They have very skilled ‘spin doctors’ as well.
Poltics is the ‘art of impression management’ and the US is very skilled at this in various forums
while China, India and fuure contenders for a bigger slice of the pie are still on a learning curve
but arguably, a far less complacent one, even though thousands of India and China’s best brains
who have top overseas educations may eventually return to their homelands, if they haven’t already, armed with specialized knowledge and skills to grow their own cultures, not necessarily
for altruistic reasons or nostalgia but increasingly for hip pocket realities which could only be
found in ‘America’. Taiwanese, a culture where I lived for over 10 years, found this out long ago as Taiwan moves inexorably, along with Singapore to rise above Americans in the top GDP
slots in the world, though both lagging well behind in quality of life terms.
The next two decades will cement in place many observable trends with Asia progressing up and Europe now suffering two years of 11% plus jobless, stagnating, and America creating a brake on growth with a massive debt and seemingly insustainable spend more than you create economic model which sustains and grows debt more than jobs because competitive advantages
are increasingly being lost to competitors or otherwise shinking as 2008 showed.
Gerald Thorn
Magna Carta Center
June 15, 2013
